Indiana Monthly Revenue Report for October 2019

General Fund revenues for October totaled $1,188.1 million, which is $40.6
million (3.5%) above estimate based on the April 17, 2019 revised revenue
forecast and $29.6 million (2.6%) above revenue in October 2018.
Overall, higher than expected collections from sales and use, individual income
and corporate taxes and other revenues such as interest and insurance revenues
combined to drive General Fund revenues above current year estimates and
prior year actuals both on a monthly and fiscal year-to-date basis.
Most of the revenue collections are projected to come in between December and
June. Significant monthly fluctuations are expected and revenues are better
interpreted within the context of the longer term trend for fiscal year 2020.
Note: The monthly revenue estimates are based on the April 17, 2019 revised
revenue forecast and do not include the estimated impact of legislative actions
taken by the General Assembly in the 2019 legislative session. For an additional
revenue perspective that includes 2019 legislative outside acts, please refer to
the Budget Plan comparisons on page 2 of the monthly revenue report.
• Sales tax collections totaled $675.0 million for October, which is $8.7 million
(1.3%) above the monthly estimate but $0.4 million (0.1%) below revenue in
October 2018. In particular, while gasoline use tax collections came in slightly
below estimate, all other sales tax collections came in above monthly estimate
and above prior year. Some of the factors affecting monthly variances include
remote sales tax payments and timing delays between tax due dates and
payments.
While it is too early to identify the specific impact of the state enforcement of the
recent changes in the taxation of remote sales on the fiscal year-to-date tax
collections, tax payments from remote sellers are contributing to the positive
fiscal year-to-date difference relative to current year estimates and prior year
actuals.
• Individual income tax collections totaled $414.9 million for October, which is $0.6
million (0.1%) above the monthly estimate and $13.1 million (3.3%) above
revenue in October 2018. While fiscal year-to-date individual income tax withholdings continue to come in slightly above current year estimates and above
prior year actuals, tax collections from other individual income sources are
driving most of the positive fiscal year-to-date difference relative to current year
estimates and prior year actuals.
• Corporate tax collections totaled $22.0 million for October, which is $23.0 million
(2410.6%) above the monthly estimate and $10.0 million (82.9%) above revenue
in October 2018. Notably, fiscal year-to-date corporate refunds have come in
below current year estimates and below prior year actuals.
• Riverboat wagering collections totaled $20.6 million for October, which is $0.5
million (2.4%) below the monthly estimate and $0.6 million (3.0%) below revenue
in October 2018.
• Racino wagering collections totaled $8.2 million for October, which is $0.4 million
(5.6%) above the monthly estimate and $0.4 million (4.6%) above revenue in
October 2018.
Commentary
Year-to-date General Fund collections totaled $5,141.0 million, which is $192.3 million
(3.9%) above the April 2019 revised revenue forecast and $142.8 million (2.9%) above
collections through the same period in the prior fiscal year.
Year-to-date sales tax collections totaled $2,754.6 million, which is $64.1 million (2.4%)
above the April 2019 revised revenue forecast and $80.6 million (3.0%) above
collections through the same period in the prior fiscal year.
Year-to-date individual income tax collections totaled $1,851.2 million, which is $53.4
million (3.0%) above the April 2019 revised revenue forecast and $21.6 million (1.2%)
above collections through the same period in the prior fiscal year.
Year-to-date corporate tax collections totaled $218.8 million, which is $47.1 million
(27.4%) above the April 2019 revised revenue forecast and $25.0 million (12.9%) above
collections through the same period in the prior fiscal year.


November 8, 2019

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